External validation of predictive table for macrovascular complications in the diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Keywords:
type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, heart disease risk factors, high blood pressureAbstract
Introduction: Diabetes Mellitus is a disease of high global impact
and one of the greatest healthcare challenges of the 21st century.
Objective: To identify the occurrence of new basal cell carcinomas according to previous history in patients with multiple lesions To perform an external validation of a predictive table for macrovascular complications at diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.
Material and Methods: An applied, analytical, retrospective, case-control study was conducted on a population of 317 patients at the time of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The study was conducted in two phases; the first phase included 120 patients from the "José Martí" health area in Santiago de Cuba, between September 2018 and December 2020, where the predictive model for macrovascular complications was built and internally validated. In the second phase, which was performed between September 2022 and December 2023, the predictive table designed in the previous phase was applied to 197 patients who came from four different health areas and were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes
in the outpatient clinic of the "Juan Bruno Zayas Alfonso” Hospital. Evaluation metrics were calculated and compared with the results of the internal validation, and clinical recommendations were issued.
Results: The predictive table for macrovascular complications
classified 34.5% of patients at moderate risk for type 2 Diabetes at diagnosis. External validation showed robust performance: sensitivity 83.33%, specificity 96.13%. The AUC was 0.942, with a prediction loss of 0.9%. These results exceeded those obtained in the internal validation.
Conclusions: The designed table allows for the prediction and risk
stratification for macrovascular complications at diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.
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